Elon Musk Promises Full Self-Driving Capabilities in Tesla Vehicles by 2025, but Regulatory Hurdles Remain
Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that the company plans to deploy its full self-driving (FSD) technology on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Texas and California next year. However, there are several obstacles that Tesla must overcome before it can fully rollout its driverless vehicles on public roads.
The Challenges Ahead
Musk’s promise of operational robotaxis by 2025 faces significant technological and regulatory hurdles. While Musk is confident that future software updates will allow Tesla’s FSD system to achieve autonomous driving, he has made similar claims in the past that failed to materialize.
In 2019, Musk said Tesla would have operational robotaxis by the end of 2020, but that deadline was missed. Some observers, like the founder of the Dawn Project and anti-FSD crusader Dan O’Dowd, are now skeptical of Musk’s new timeline.
Another challenge lies in regulatory approval. Tesla has already faced issues with its FSD system, which is currently only approved for use with active driver supervision on public roads. The company will need to clear additional safety and design requirements before deploying truly driverless vehicles.
Regulatory Concerns around Robotaxi Design
Tesla unveiled two autonomous vehicle concepts at a recent event – a two-seat “Cybercab” and a 20-seat “Robovan” – neither of which have traditional steering wheels, pedals, or side mirrors. While the designs are innovative, they may face difficulties in gaining regulatory approval.
Most jurisdictions require vehicles to have these standard safety features. For example, General Motors previously planned to build a pedal-less robotaxi called Origin but scrapped the idea due to “regulatory uncertainty” around its unique design.
In contrast, Alphabet’s Waymo, a pioneer in autonomous driving, deploys its sensor suite on vehicles equipped with the mandated pedals and steering wheels. This approach may provide an easier path for regulatory approval compared to Tesla’s more radical designs.
Potential Regulatory Advantages for Tesla
Despite the challenges, Tesla may have some advantages in navigating the regulatory environment. Ashok Elluswamy, a Tesla executive, suggested that as other companies like Waymo have already paved the way, Tesla may face fewer hurdles.
Additionally, Ark Invest analyst Tasha Keeney expressed optimism that 40 U.S. states have either approved autonomous vehicles or not prohibited them, which could work in Tesla’s favor. However, the lack of mandated safety features like side mirrors on Tesla’s concept vehicles may still pose issues.
The Road Ahead
While Tesla’s autonomous driving ambitions are ambitious, the path to deployment faces significant technological and regulatory obstacles. Musk’s previous overly optimistic timelines have eroded some trust, and Tesla will need to demonstrate the safety and reliability of its FSD system to win over regulators and the public.
The success of Tesla’s robotaxi plans could have far-reaching implications for the future of mobility. However, the company must carefully navigate the complex regulatory landscape and address any safety concerns before its driverless vehicles can become a reality on public roads.