Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) won’t remain under the radar for long. With an S-1 application approved last year, up-listing to the NYSE could only be weeks away.

  • After extensive exploration, Permex discovered its Permian Basin holdings contain 51% more proven reserves, and 46% more probable reserves than previously believed.
  • That amounts to a present-day value of $428 million — a 48% increase year over year.
  • With a current market cap of $6.8 million, that means they’re sitting on reserves worth 40X its current market cap. Permex may be one of the most undervalued companies in the oil and gas industry today.

A junior petroleum company is making big gains in America’s richest, most productive oilfield.

The company is Permex Petroleum, a producing oil and gas company with more than 78 oil and gas wells, and proven untapped reserves across 11,700+ acres in the Permian Basin.

To have such substantial holdings at this early stage is not at all typical for a junior company… but little about Permex can be considered “junior.”

That starts with its recent big news…

The first key step came quietly in early Q4 2022. Permex’s board approved a reverse split that launched the company out of penny stock status. The company’s belief was that their growing petroleum reserves, coupled with a strong cash-rich, zero-debt balance sheet would make the case for the opportunity to uplist.

They were right.

As of November 14, 2022, Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) was approved for listing on the NYSE, elevating the company off of the OTC bulletin boards. An audit of reserves and financials is underway, and the company believes this up-listing will occur in the next couple of months.

The company’s upside is tremendous as they aggressively pursue exploration, development and growing production at its Permian Basin operations.

Here’s the whole story…

It began over six years ago when Mehran Ehsan saw opportunity on the horizon with over-extended juniors exploring the Permian Basin.

You see, in 2016 the USGS announced a substantial reserve estimate for this region… 20 BILLION barrels of recoverable crude along with 16 TRILLION cubic feet of natural gas.

Those grand projections then triggered the highest prices ever paid for domestic oil and gas acreage.

Permian lease prices rocketed, fueled by borrowed money and high oil prices.

Companies that went hard to the bank found themselves underwater when oil plunged below $40/barrel, even those with proven resources and reserves.

Ehsan knew these companies would soon be facing liquidation, unable to pay their considerable loan obligations. He launched a plan to take advantage of the fire sales that would soon come.

Now here’s where things got really interesting.

Ehsan had a huge advantage, having spent the last 14 years as owner of oil and gas DPP programs, and as a manager in mergers, acquisitions & divestitures.

He used this leverage to assemble a team of oilfield veterans and petroleum financiers under newly launched Permex Petroleum, and targeted Permian Basin bargains as they became available.

It didn’t take long.

By 2018, Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) had established a strong position on prime Permian Basin leases that held proven and probable reserves just waiting to be developed.

As oil prices continued to collapse, more Permian bargains came to their attention.

With cash in hand and the inside connections to finalize the deals, Ehsan acquired coveted properties at heavy discounts to today’s prices. Leases that today would bring between $10,000 – $17,500/per acre on undeveloped acreage and as high as $65,000 for fully developed acreage (based on M&A activity in the region). Permex snatched up for as little as $2,000 – $3,000/acre.

Ehsan made note of this in this 2018 year-end letter to shareholders:

“For exploration & production companies (“E&Ps”), 2018 could best be described as a year of complete shock and awe. We had a bull cycle followed by an unpredicted 40% drop in oil prices and rather brutal bear cycle within weeks of each other…”

For many companies, it was a fatal year, a disaster in every sense of the word.

But not for Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL).

Instead, they took advantage of the downturns to build further on its portfolio of assets.

“Our team are firm believers of “not letting a good disaster go to waste”, and as such our company took advantage of the most recent downturns and will look to continue picking up hawkish positions in the Permian as the industry starts its next correction. The results will be that your Company will position itself in a long-term growth phase while simultaneously sustaining itself during a low industry cycle.”

That “long-term growth phase” appears to be gaining traction right now.

Major Oil Price Hike Projected In 2023

In September, Short Term Energy Outlook published this assessment for 2023 oil prices:

“The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages…$97 per barrel in 2023. The possibility of petroleum supply disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth continues to create the potential for higher oil prices, while the possibility of slower-than-forecast economic growth creates the potential for lower prices.”

A few other noteworthy forecasts for Brent Crude in the coming year are sounding the same alarm.1

  • Bank of America anticipates $100.00/barrel…
  • ANZ Research is projecting $104.50/barrel…
  • Trading Economics expects to see $97.06/barrel…
  • And Fitch Solutions forecasts a more modest $85/barrel.

Even the most conservative of these estimates gives current oil prices a long way to climb before they reach their top. One thing seems abundantly clear, the immediate and near-term look quite positive for oil and gas producers.

Recent events seem to reflect this expectation.

Nothing speaks more resoundingly than when the Biden administration drained 405 million barrels from America’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) through mid-October.

To put that in perspective, that accounts for a whopping 57% of the total reserve capacity.2

Something will have to be done to rebuild those reserves, and it likely won’t come cheap. The White House may have created some supply side pressure to lower oil prices by tapping hard on the SPR, but that can’t last. Unless they choose to ignore the now half-empty SPR, they’ll need 405 million barrels to fill it back up.

That puts all eyes on the Permian Basin, and specifically Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL), a mid-tier producer with big ambitions.

Key Player in America's Future Oil And Gas Supply Chain

In March 2022, Bloomberg published a report on the Permian Basin, stating,

“The Permian Basin, a sprawling shale patch that lies beneath Texas and New Mexico, is uniquely positioned to become the world’s most important growth engine for oil production.”3

The report went on to ask and answer:

“Where can the world quickly turn to for more oil? The answer, it turns out, isn’t the traditional powerhouse of OPEC or the promising new offshore fields of Brazil. Instead, the weight of the oil world is falling squarely on the shoulders of a few counties tucked into lonely corners of the U.S. Southwest.”

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) confirmed this in September 2022:

The Permian Basin in western Texas and eastern New Mexico is one of the world’s most prolific unconventional oil- and natural gas-producing regions.4

OPEC may have sent Biden packing, but America will not go wanting.  We have the oil… it’s in the Permian Basin just waiting to be tapped.

New Acquisitions Nearly Triple Asset Footprint

Since their string of acquisitions in 2018, Permex Petroleum’s proved and probable reserves have rocketed. 

Surprisingly, that soaring reserve base went little noticed on Wall Street through the end of the last decade. That can be expected to shift now with Permex’s newly approved NYSE listing.

As of September 2021, the latest date that certified numbers have been published, Permex Petroleum proved and probable reserves had the following valuations:5

  • Proved and Probable Oil: 13,665,900 BBL
  • Proved and Probable Gas: 13,270,400 MCF

From those reserve figures, the company provides the following valuation:

  • Pre-Tax Present Value $224,102,350 de-risked to 10% of in situ valuation

Now, here’s an interesting calculation based on this value. Fully diluted and post-reverse split, Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) now reports only 3,113,614 shares outstanding.6

That calculates to nearly $72 in per-share Pre-Tax Present Value.

Further, over a third of those fully diluted shares are non-exercised options and warrants ranging in price from $12.60 to $14.50 per share.

And to make the value even more impressive, the company reports having a cash balance totaling $5.4 million, with zero debt to outside financiers.

It all adds up to one thing…

Permex Petroleum is well positioned to not only build on its current assets, but to grow them as opportunities arise in the future.

The Sleeping Giant At Breedlove

Keep in mind, Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) is just getting started. To date, the company has accumulated 11,700 net acres of leases concentrated largely in the most prolific regions of the Permian Basin.

Now keep in mind, major producer Diamondback Energy just announced a significant acquisition just north of this property, to the tune of $1.5 billion. But the real kicker is that the net acreage that commanded this high price point, makes up about 2/3rds of Permex’s Martin Country footprint.

Currently the focus for their most aggressive development is the 7,780-acre Breedlove Prospect, located in one of the top three production regions, Martin County.

Now Breedlove is described as sitting at the very core of the Permian Basin.

The project is still in its early stages, and already has 25 vertical wells, 12 of which are currently producing, plus nine more shut-ins earmarked for future development.

Production prospects at Breedlove appear exceptional.

In addition to these active sites, Permex has identified 18 additional undeveloped locations where new wells can be spudded. That raises the prospect for a total of 39 producing wells at Breedlove, making it the company’s top priority in its development plans.

Those plans have already launched.

In November 2022, Permex announced successful completion of the “drilling phase” for the first new well at Breedlove, stating that,

“All indications from the drilling show to be favorable as multiple zones have been found which allows the Company to proceed with the next steps of perforation and completion.” 7

The presence of multiple zones is highly representative of the Permian Basin; it is a key reason why even after decades of conventional production, the Basin holds such tremendous untapped reserve potential. As confirmed by the USGS, billions of barrels remain pooled in oil and gas reserves.

One well can hit 6-7 horizontally oriented oil-bearing formations. These formations simply could not be fully tapped with conventional drilling and recovery technologies.

But according to the USGS, those barrels can be economically recovered with current, unconventional and well enhancement technologies. 

Permex Petroleum’s drill logs from its just-completed, drilling confirm the horizontal production potential at Breedlove, which the company is factoring into their longer-term development planning.

Also in this announcement, Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) confirmed that in addition to Breedlove, it “has access to an additional 62 shut-in oil, gas and saltwater disposal wells that the Company intends to also be brought online.”

The announcement goes on to say, “Management believes that many of these wells have the potential to yield similar results, thereby increasing the Company’s total daily production solely by re-entering shut-in wells.”

It should be noted that recompletion of shut-in wells across all its Permian Basin properties is key to rapid growth in production and revenue.

Firing Up Past Producing Wells At Henshaw

Along with their aggressive well development operations underway at Breedlove, the company recently announced a re-entry and simulation program on its Henshaw Premier and Oxy Yates properties located in the New Mexico range of the Permian Basin.

The Henshaw property comprises 1,880 net acres of past producing wells “shut in” by previous operators. Recompletion and stimulation of these wells, is an ideal strategy to achieve Permex’s aggressive growth plan.

Mehran Ehsan, President and CEO, made this objective clear in the Henshaw news release, stating,

“The results obtained through the minor stimulation and treatment of the recent [Henshaw] wells are inline with our strategy to add sustainable marginal production through low risk, low cost recompletions while preparing for drilling programs for continued growth. We have now increased our production by as much as 48% compared to June 30th, 2022 quarterly filings.”

The best part is, the revenue and reserve values cited earlier are based on oil priced at $65/barrel. And much of the reserves that Permex Petroleum anticipates producing breaks even under $30 a barrel.

In other words, Permex can see positive cash flow even if oil prices drop to recent historic lows.

That’s a strong safety net for Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL) shareholders.

And there’s another point to remember. Permex Petroleum is debt-free with $5.4 million reported in the bank and growing revenue based on expanding new production.

What to do now….

Permex may be called a junior at present (it’s even noted that way on the company website), but that will likely be short lived. With the approval of its NYSE listing, the doors have opened to a flood of well-heeled investors and institutions.

For more information about Permex Petroleum (OTC:OILCF, CSE:OILOTC:OILCF, CSE:OIL), its current operations and future plans, go to the company website.

Don’t forget to register your email address to download the investor deck, and be the first to receive up-to-date news and important announcements.

And please remember to always do your own due diligence.

1https://capital.com/oil-price-forecast
2 https://www.statista.com/chart/28498/strategic-petroleum-reserve/
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-global-oil-permian-basin/?leadSource=uverify%20wall
4 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54079
5 These data points are taken directly from the company’s online published investor presentation available here.
6 https://www.permexpetroleum.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf
7 https://www.permexpetroleum.com/news/news/index.php?content_id=169

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