Trump Considers F-35 Sale to Turkey at NATO Summit

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would lift sanctions on Turkey and weigh selling Ankara F-35 stealth fighters, a move that could hand Lockheed Martin (LMT) a significant new export contract while reshaping NATO’s eastern flank security calculus.¹

Defense-sector investors are watching closely: any formal F-35 sale to Turkey would represent one of the largest single-country fighter-jet orders in years, with analysts estimating a potential deal in the range of tens of billions of dollars depending on unit count.

Key Takeaways

Trump pledges to lift U.S. sanctions imposed over Turkey’s S-400 purchase.
F-35 sale to Ankara faces an existing congressional ban requiring legislative action.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is the primary defense-industry beneficiary if a deal proceeds.

Market Reaction & Context

Trump’s comments came on the sidelines of the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara during a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.¹ Lockheed Martin, the sole manufacturer of the F-35 Lightning II, stands as the most direct equity catalyst: LMT shares have already outpaced the broader S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense sub-index by roughly 12 percentage points year-to-date, and a confirmed Turkish order could extend that run.

Turkey was originally a partner-nation on the F-35 program before being expelled in 2019 after it purchased Russia’s S-400 air-defense system, triggering sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).² Restoring Ankara’s access would reverse one of the most contentious allied-nation exclusions in the program’s history.

What Trump Said

Speaking alongside Erdogan, Trump said the United States would “certainly” consider allowing Turkey back into the F-35 program, adding that Turkey had been more “loyal” than many other countries.² On sanctions, the president said flatly that the restrictions would be lifted, though he offered no timeline or executive mechanism.

“We will certainly be doing it,” Trump said of potential F-35 sales to Turkey, according to Bloomberg Television. “Turkey has been very loyal.”²

Detailed Analysis

The congressional ban on F-35 transfers to Turkey is a statutory constraint, meaning a presidential declaration alone may be insufficient to complete a sale without legislative action or a formal CAATSA waiver.² That procedural hurdle introduces meaningful deal-execution risk that investors should price in before reading Tuesday’s comments as a done deal.

A separate but related concern centers on technology security. The original rationale for Turkey’s expulsion was that simultaneous operation of the F-35 and the Russian-built S-400 could allow Moscow to study the jet’s radar signature.² Whether Ankara has addressed Washington’s S-400 concerns – potentially by decommissioning or transferring the system – remains publicly unclear and will likely be a key condition for any congressional approval.

From a supply-chain standpoint, Turkish firms such as Roketsan and Alp Aviation were previously embedded in the F-35 industrial base, producing components including center fuselage parts. Re-admitting Turkey as a customer could also reopen discussions about restoring those manufacturing partnerships, a secondary positive for the bilateral trade relationship.

Outlook

The path from Trump’s verbal signal to a signed Letter of Offer and Acceptance runs through the State Department’s Foreign Military Sale process, Pentagon certification, and – critically – Congress.¹ Market participants should treat Tuesday’s statement as a political catalyst that improves deal probability rather than as a contractual commitment.

Erdogan has sought F-35s as a replacement for Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet and as a symbol of restored alliance standing; the Turkish side has strong incentive to move quickly.² If CAATSA sanctions are waived by executive action and Congress does not block the transfer, Lockheed’s F-35 program – already the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons system – would gain a buyer that could order upward of 100 aircraft, according to prior Turkish government statements.

Conclusion

Tuesday’s Ankara meeting marks a clear diplomatic shift that investors in defense primes, particularly Lockheed Martin (LMT), should monitor closely. The key near-term catalyst to watch is whether the White House issues a formal CAATSA waiver and how Congress responds – both events that would convert a headline into a hard order book entry.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.