The United State’s decision to blacklist Huawei has shaken the entire tech world. Export restrictions, as determined by the Trump Administration, will prohibit Huawei from sourcing smartphone components, and even licensing from essential software like Google’s Android Operating System.

Many speculate on how big of a dent this will be on Huawei’s market share. Huawei is a dominant worldwide smartphone brand – second to Samsung, and ahead of Apple.

Per analyst Ming Chi-Kuo of TF International Securities, Huawei losing brand trust is their biggest issue. His report forecasts Samsung to be the primary beneficiary – an additional 10 to 20 million units as smartphone buyers convert. Even though Apple is losing its Chinese market, this blacklist helps Apple’s incoming non-China market share to offset the initial loss.

Kuo shares that to recover, Huawei is developing its own operating system and targets to make it compatible with most Android applications. The launch will most likely happen towards the latter part of 2019. So, until the new OS debuts, Huawei will face the loss of 8 to 10 million units per month.

The analyst also believes in the high chances that Huawei will stick to developing this new operating system whether or not the USA administration reverses their initial decision. This OS will most likely be Open Source, and Huawei’s success will be substantially dependent on the Chinese government and prominent Chinese tech companies.

Huawei also faces impactful challenges as we look into longer-impact losses like 5G technology, cameras, and other new smartphone features that American tech companies like Broadcom, Skyworks, and Qrovo supply.